OTTAWA - Prime Minister Stephen Harper has waited four years to make what many believe will be his most important foreign visit, and it couldn't come at a more disadvantageous time.
Harper's visit this week to the world's next superpower comes at a time when Canada needs China more than at any other time, and when the high-ground on human rights has been lowered somewhat by the Afghan prison abuse revelations.
To many China watchers, Harper's cold shoulder to date has been inexplicable given how important the emerging market of 1.3 billion people is becoming to Canada's resource-based economy.
But former Conservative trade minister David Emerson, who has been urging closer engagement since joining Harper's government in early 2006, says many of his former colleagues needed to work through their dislike of the communist regime first.
"There were many Conservatives who had views on China and the nature of government and treatment of people and human rights and I think there had to be a period of time when the government would come to grips with some of the issues," he said in an interview.
"I think the Conservative members are (now) understanding that you don't have to give up your fundamental beliefs to pursue an engagement that is necessary for the country."
The antipathy dates back to when the party was in opposition and critical of what many hard-right MPs perceived as Liberal Jean Chretien's over-eagerness to curry trade favours from the Reds.
Many think Harper himself went out of his way to poke the giant. He did not attend the 2006 Olympics in Beijing when even U.S. President George W. Bush found time, and angered the Chinese with his open and unprecedented embrace of the Dalai Lama.
Chinese President Hu Jintao in turn snubbed Harper at an international forum in the fall of 2006 after the prime minister declared that Canadians wouldn't want him "to sell out (human rights) to the almighty dollar."
Such baggage doesn't vanish overnight, even though the Conservatives have toned down the rhetoric.
This year they have carefully strewn the road to Harper's visit with rose petals in the form of four ministerial visits that stressed partnership rather than grievances.
Still, Canadians will expect Harper to stick to his guns on human rights, said Liberal foreign affairs critic Bob Rae, even if the guns are holstered.
Bringing up issues of how China treats its own citizens has been complicated, however, by recent accusations that Canada knowingly turned over Afghan prisoners to what was almost certain torture.
The story was carried in some Chinese newspapers, says York University China expert Bernie Frolic, who was in the country at the time. Canadian news hardly ever gets any attention, the frequent visitor notes, although Frolic adds he doesn't know whether the airing of this particular news item was calculated to put Harper on the defensive.
An additional uncomfortable element is that Canada's current ambassador to China, David Mulroney, is accused of trying to muzzle inconvenient truths and will likely stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Harper at many events. Mulroney has denied the charge.
"I think the prime minister's credibility is somewhat at issue in terms of his lack of candour in House of Commons," said Rae. "But I think every prime minister who engages with the government of China should talk about human rights."
The list of irritants is long, from Taiwan and Tibet, to the treatment of Falun Gong practitioners, to the case of Husein Celil, the Canadian dual citizen spirited out of Uzbekistan in 2006 and imprisoned in China. Beijing is refusing Canadian consular visits.
Last week, Amnesty International issued a fresh condemnation after the conviction of Huang Qi, a human-rights defender who worked with the victims of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake.
While these issues are important, Peter Harder, a former foreign affairs deputy minister who now heads the Canada China Business Council, says Harper cannot afford to take his eye off the main prize of the trip.
"Every Canadian prime minister and minister has found a way of raising issues of human rights and political developments very professionally and dispassionately and still" get on with the business of exploring economic opportunities, he points out.
And although China exports more to Canada than the other way around, there's no hiding where the power lies.
China's economy barely noticed the global recession and continues to gobble up firms, raw materials and finished goods from around the world. It is projected to become the world's biggest economy by mid-century.
The question is: will Canada become one of the economies that stands to profit?
"He doesn't have love President Hu Jintao, but we need to get along with China because they are a powerful player in the world today and we're sort of losing that connection," said Frolic.
Emerson believes that China takes on even greater importance for Canada given the U.S. economic difficulties and rising protectionism south of the border. Canada needs another option, he says.
"The Americans have really commenced to intensively ignore us," he said. "We are not getting special consideration on protectionist measures.
"I think now we're having to look elsewhere ... (and) the No. 1 market where we can really make a significant amount of progress is China."
China will never eclipse the U.S. as an economic partner - geography matters - but it can become a major counterbalance given the natural fit of resources, where China's needs are met by Canada's abundance.
China's interest in the resources sector has intensified in recent months. It acquired 17 per cent of Canada's largest base metals firm, Tech Resources, for $1.7 billion. As well, it spend $1.9 billion to acquire a 60 per cent stake in two oilsands projects.
Emerson says success for Harper shouldn't be judged on whether he comes away with some quick-and-dirty deals, which he says can be fleeting, but whether he can secure hard commitments on a "process to pursue fundamental arrangements we need for concrete progress over a long period."
No. 1 on the agenda is an investment protection agreement that gives Canadian firms in China assurance they will be dealt with fairly.
"The Chinese are far more far-sighted than we are (and) it's getting the relationship onto a long-term track of engagement that's important," Emerson said.
